Forward by

Travis McCracken

Genghis Khan's fabled decree, "If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you,"

my thought is to argue for a transformative approach,

where we eschew the aggressive postures of nations like Russia and China in favour of creating a global tapestry woven with the threads of abundance and collective well-being.

As we look beyond the strategies that echo the conquests of Genghis Khan, i envision a world where peace is not enforced through dominance but achieved through a shared commitment to prosperity that knows no borders.

It is through this lens that we must view our current geopolitical challenges, seeking not to emulate the punitive forces of history, but to create a society where the specter of scarcity is replaced with the reality of abundance—an abundance that ensures peace and stability far more effectively than any arsenal ever could.

Nations need leaders aligning with the overarching theme of transitioning from traditional military strategies to the creation of a society founded on abundance and peace

In a world where the echoes of history reverberate through the present, it becomes imperative to examine the patterns of international conduct. This comes at a time when the convergence of military ambition and economic expansion by nations like Russia and China signals a crucial juncture in global dynamics. The oft-trodden path of flexing military muscle, under the guise of safeguarding interests, stands in stark contrast to the ideals of global peace and cooperation.

Yet, the question arises: Is it possible to shift from a zero-sum game, dictated by the scarcity of resources, to an economic paradigm of abundance? This collection suggests that the true essence of peacekeeping lies not in the expansion of military outposts and the overt display of power but in the collective endeavor to create a society where abundance is not a privilege but a common wealth.

We stand at the cusp of a new era, where the strategies of the past need not dictate the possibilities of the future. This text aims to foster a dialogue centered on collaboration over confrontation, on building bridges rather than barriers, and ultimately, on redefining the economics of our time to herald an age of unprecedented prosperity and peace.

Assessment of Chinese Maritime Interests in the Indian Ocean Region

By Cmde Venugopal Vengalil

In the span of the last two decades, China has risen meteorically, expanding its economic and military prowess. Its engagements in the Indian Ocean have significantly grown, leading to regional apprehensions regarding its burgeoning naval presence and the deployment of so-called 'debt trap' diplomacy—potentially providing China with significant military advantages in the area. While the exact nature of China’s objectives in the Indian Ocean remains opaque, the Chinese leadership is undoubtedly gearing up to employ a variety of military missions to safeguard what it perceives as its strategic interests.

This discourse aims to dissect the underpinnings and broader implications of China’s maritime strategy, placing a particular emphasis on the Indian Ocean—a region of quintessential importance to China for its energy security and maritime commerce. An analytical examination of their 'String of Pearls' strategy and the strategic inroads achieved to cement a presence in the region will be offered, delineating the implications from both commercial and strategic vantage points. The viability of leveraging these commercial footholds for military purposes stands as a pivotal topic. Furthermore, the evolution of the Chinese Navy from a regional force to one capable of blue-water operations and whether it can effectively project power beyond its traditional borders remains a contentious subject. This paper endeavors to unravel the true capacity of the Chinese Navy to secure its maritime interests in the Indian Ocean.

Admiral Mahan's doctrine of "sea power" encapsulates the notion of achieving command and establishing political and military dominion over pivotal areas. To distill this concept into its essence, he posits a cyclical relationship where commerce spawns wealth, which in turn finances the navy that underpins trade and extends a country's influence. Mahan's further exposition posits that 'sea control', through maritime commerce and naval dominance, spells out a preeminent global influence. This stems from the principle that while the bounty of the land is substantial, it is the mastery of the seas that augments and secures a nation's reach and power.

The Vitality of Maritime Strategy in China’s Doctrine

The sea's role in enabling vital exchanges is paramount, and this holds true for the multifaceted aspects of sea power that China wields—spanning from hard naval strength to the softer power of trade and resource utilization. This enduring relevance is exemplified in China’s modern maritime strategy, which ensures that the Indian Ocean's supply lines, constituting 80% of China's imported oil as of December 2022, remain secure and efficient, with daily consumption reported at 14.295 million barrels.

Beijing has extended its strategic reach across the Indian Ocean, ostensibly reviving the Silk Route under the guise of development and trade, with infrastructure projects designed to fortify its energy security. However, underlying this expansion is a concern for the security of its trade routes, where any disruption could spell an energy crisis or even result in military stagnation.

China’s Evolving Maritime Strategy

Transitioning from a traditional land power, China has experienced a paradigm shift toward a robust maritime consciousness. The post-Cold War era has seen China pivot from a regional security focus to asserting its presence as a central maritime power. The pursuit of sea power and maritime rights has become pivotal to Beijing’s strategic objectives, aiming for substantial politico-economic and military influence within the Indo-Pacific region—a cornerstone in its aspiration to be recognized as a preeminent global maritime force.

This shift necessitates an expansion in maritime capabilities, with a proactive stance towards developing the navy and readiness for potential conflict. This evolved maritime strategy moves beyond Maoist coastal defense towards a proactive offshore and blue-water defense, a stance reinforced by key points in China’s recent defense white paper:

- China’s military direction is increasingly geared towards the protection of its international interests and fostering global peace.

- Securing Chinese investments and the welfare of its citizens abroad has gained new significance in this era.

- Enhancing its capabilities to address both international and domestic security threats is now a priority.

Navigating the Malacca Dilemma

The 'Malacca Dilemma' has gained prominence in discussions on China's maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean. Scrutinizing this dilemma uncovers several ambiguities, particularly concerning geography and security. A comprehensive analysis beyond the narrow focus on the Malacca Strait illuminates that it is not the sole passage from the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Alternative routes through the Sunda, Lombok, and Makassar Straits exist, which are viable and not as economically burdensome as the Chinese narrative suggests. If a chokepoint truly demands attention from Chinese policymakers, then the Strait of Hormuz stands out as a critical concern. This is due to the strait's significant geopolitical implications and the fact that it presents a larger vulnerability for China, being outside of the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) traditional maritime sphere of influence, which is more effectively countered by U.S. and Indian naval superiority.

Furthermore, the perceived security risks in the Malacca Strait are often overstated by Beijing. Neutral nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore encircle the strait and firmly oppose any single international hegemony, including U.S.-led initiatives. This resistance is rooted in a desire to maintain regional cooperation and autonomy. Disagreements also persist locally over the primary threats to the straits—with the U.S. and Singapore pointing to terrorism and piracy, while Malaysia and Indonesia view these concerns as potentially overstated justifications for strategic dominance. This balance of regional powers effectively mitigates the risk of any one nation imposing control over the Malacca Strait and challenges the narrative of a singular, overarching Chinese security concern.

The Strategic Bluff and its Global Repercussions

The term 'Malacca Bluff' is coined to reflect China's strategic posturing, emphasizing the Indian Ocean Region's (IOR) significance to Beijing. China’s "Two Oceans" doctrine seeks dominion over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, pivotal for its maritime routes, which are essential for the country’s energy requirements and economic sustenance. While the United States and allied powers pose significant resistance, the perceived lack of a cohesive security strategy in the IOR presents China with opportunities for expansion. However, this strategy is not improvised; it aligns with a comprehensive doctrine, as evidenced by Chinese defense white papers that have evolved from a stance of non-intervention to one that endorses distant force projection, stimulated by the global financial crisis of 2008 and the perceived decline of Western hegemony.

China’s doctrine in the IOR can be dissected into economic, military, and diplomatic vectors, with:

Economic Influence

China acknowledges the strategic potency of economic leverage in a region replete with fragile nation-states. The IOR, home to countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, has a history of political instability and susceptibility to external influences. Beijing’s engagement through vast infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often pitched as mutually beneficial. Yet, these projects come under scrutiny for potentially precipitating unsustainable debt, thus offering China a strategic foothold and enhanced surveillance capabilities along vital maritime routes. These initiatives, while not immediately economically viable for the host nations, serve a dual purpose: they address China’s own security needs and fortify its geopolitical presence.

Military Expansion

On the military front, China’s geo-economic ambitions are underpinned by a growing military footprint in the IOR, a testament to its quest for regional hegemony. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has progressively expanded its capabilities, reflecting China’s determination to assert its influence and secure its maritime interests.

Strategic Assertions and Diplomatic Engagements

The enhancement of undersea capabilities and the strategic deployment of naval assets signify China's intention to prioritize maritime domains in its military calculus. The focus on developing both offensive and counteroffensive measures showcases China’s resolve to safeguard its maritime routes, underscoring the value it places on naval strength as a vehicle for securing trade and asserting its economic influence in the IOR.

Diplomatic Leverage through Multinational Forums

China has adeptly cemented its role within the Indian Ocean Region's (IOR) multi-lateral architecture by leveraging diplomatic channels. Beyond its steadfast alliance with Pakistan, Beijing has expanded its military and economic ties with Bangladesh, emerging as a key supplier of military equipment and a prominent trade partner. In the island nations of the IOR — Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles — which are strategic to China’s maritime routes, it has fostered relationships that serve its strategic imperatives. These relationships have facilitated China’s growing influence within key regional organizations such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), where China is a dialogue partner, and the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), where it holds observer status.

The Role of China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA)

Established in April 2018, the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) represents Beijing’s ambition for a streamlined and impactful foreign aid strategy, particularly in reinforcing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indian Ocean Region. At the latest assembly in November 2022, the CIDCA spearheaded discussions for establishing a maritime disaster prevention and mitigation framework within the region. The consensus among participants highlighted the need for enhanced policy coordination and the promotion of sustainable economic growth through marine resources, including fisheries, renewable energy, tourism, and maritime commerce.

Regional Ambitions and Strategic Outposts

Beijing’s assertive drive to establish its hegemony in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is a direct response to the perceived decline of the United States and the strategic vacuum it believes this creates. This assertiveness is part of a calculated three-pronged approach to solidify its influence.

Chinese Engagements in the Indian Ocean Region

Bangladesh

Bangladesh has become a significant focus of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with substantial contributions to its maritime infrastructure, energy sector, and military capabilities. Notably, a $1.2 billion investment in a submarine base at BNS Sheikh Hasina, commissioned in April 2023, is part of the broader 'Forces Goal 2030' initiative, aiming to modernize Bangladesh’s military capabilities. Further investments in the development of Chittagong, Payra, and Mongla ports underscore China's commitment to deepening its strategic foothold in the region. The possibility of utilizing Cox’s Bazar’s submarine base during peacetime heightens the strategic implications, although this remains a topic of geopolitical contention.

COCO ISLANDS

The developments on the Coco Islands suggest the establishment of an advanced surveillance and communication hub. It is speculated that this could serve as a strategic point for monitoring the eastern flank of India, including missile test sites. Recent satellite imagery from January 2023 indicates significant enhancements to the infrastructure, including an extended 2300-meter runway, a radar installation, and the addition of two new hangars, indicating a growing military presence.

Strategic Developments in Myanmar and Beyond

In Myanmar, China’s investment in critical infrastructure such as parallel oil and natural gas pipelines from Kyaukphyu to Kunming, spanning 771 km, and further extending to Guangxi covering 2806 km in total, represents a strategic maneuver. This network not only bypasses the Malacca Strait but also shortens the transit by approximately 700 km. These pipelines are strategically crucial, offering an alternative route to the Malacca Strait, ensuring energy security in the face of potential blockades. While there are no confirmed reports of Chinese military installations at these ports, China remains a principal military hardware supplier to Myanmar.

Expanding Influence in Sri Lanka

China’s financial infusion into Sri Lanka under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reached nearly USD 15 billion, targeting key maritime and infrastructure projects. The Hambantota port, funded by China, is strategically located to facilitate the transit of oil tankers from the Middle East and Africa, serving as a vital node in the oceanic routes. Additional major projects include a USD 2 billion investment by China Merchants Group to develop Colombo port into South Asia’s largest logistics hub by 2025. Moreover, the Colombo port city project initiated in 2015 underscores China’s intent to solidify its presence in the Indian Ocean as a strategic and commercial powerhouse. Contrary to some analysts' skepticism, the commitment to infrastructure in Sri Lanka reflects a strategic calculation rather than a miscalculation due to proximity to India and logistical challenges.

The Significance of Gwadar

Gwadar port in Pakistan holds future strategic potential for China as a military outpost, free from the geopolitical constraints typically found in the region. Its location is geopolitically advantageous, situated near the Iranian border and providing a vantage point over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime chokepoint.

Strategic Maritime Outposts and Policy Shifts

The Chinese naval base in Djibouti, operational since August 2017, represents China’s strategic positioning within close proximity to the Indian Ocean, providing a pivotal location for monitoring and potentially influencing the region’s naval dynamics. This move into Djibouti underlines China’s intention to protect its energy routes and overseas interests with a permanent military presence, which also enables operations ranging from anti-piracy initiatives in the Gulf of Aden to potential non-combatant evacuation scenarios.

Obock Naval Base and its Geostrategic Role

The establishment of the Obock Naval Base aligns with China’s expanding reach in international affairs, particularly in Africa. This base serves China’s broader strategy, functioning as both an economic and military foothold in the Indian Ocean Region. It serves as a logistic and operational hub for the Chinese Navy, bolstering their capability to safeguard maritime trade routes and asserting their rising status as a global maritime power.

People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Aspirations in the Indian Ocean

The PLAN's presence in the Indian Ocean is growing more pronounced, reflecting broader ambitions to extend China’s naval capabilities. By hosting advanced warships and strategic aircraft, China is reinforcing its foreign policy with a demonstration of military strength. This strategic pivot marks a significant evolution in China’s international posture, aiming to reshape existing global frameworks and signaling its intent to wield greater influence through a permanent naval presence.

Strategic Aspirations and Maritime Expansion

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), one of the world's largest naval forces, is seemingly on course to establish a significant blue-water operational capability, indicating a potential future Indian Ocean fleet. While presently focused on anti-piracy operations and maintaining a naval presence, there are political and technical considerations that may currently preclude the official formation of an Indian Ocean fleet to exert regional dominance.

Modernization and Strategy of the PLAN

The strategic overhaul of the PLAN in recent decades underscores China’s ambition to protect its interests in East Asia and counterbalance any potential threats from contingencies involving Taiwan. The PLAN, now equipped with a modern fleet including over 100 advanced destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, is strategically positioning itself for sustained presence and influence in the Indian Ocean.

Concept of a 'Two Fleet' Strategy

Strategists are debating a future in which the PLAN will focus on two primary theaters: the western Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean, the latter stretching from the Middle East to the Malacca Strait. The concept involves the deployment of two ocean-going fleets: the Pacific fleet centered around aircraft carriers, and the Indian Ocean Fleet, potentially anchored at key locations in friendly nations across the region. Such strategic distribution would enable effective power projection and the assertion of Chinese interests across both critical maritime domains.

The decision to formalize an Indian Ocean fleet remains speculative, and due to various political considerations, China may choose not to label it explicitly as a 'fleet'. Nevertheless, assessments based on open-source intelligence, Belt and Road Initiative port projects, and the concerted effort to commission blue-water capable ships suggest that China is preparing the requisite political, logistical, and security framework for such an endeavor. For China, facing a U.S. seen as a strategic competitor, the establishment of a robust naval presence acts as both a countermeasure and a deterrent against any hegemonic aspirations in the region.

Advancing Naval Capabilities and Air Power

The PLAN’s pursuit of a robust fleet of aircraft carriers is a testament to the navy’s strategic vision. Reports suggest China may commission up to six carriers by the mid-2030s for global blue-water operations, with at least a couple of these potentially patrolling the Indian Ocean. It is critical to recognize that Chinese naval operations in East Asia currently benefit from integrated air support, a component not readily available in the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean.

Technological Hurdles in Naval Aviation

Significant advancements in naval aviation mark the PLAN’s progress since the Liaoning's maiden voyage in 2012. Notably, the PLAN’s milestone of achieving night-time landings on carriers in 2018 and its plans to replace the J-15 fighter jet, which is plagued by severe technical limitations including weight issues, signify its evolving capabilities. The J-15's limitations necessitate takeoffs with restricted fuel and ordnance load, constraining its operational efficacy compared to lighter counterparts like the American F-18.

Synergy in Carrier Strike Groups

The true strength of an aircraft carrier lies in its coordinated operations with escort ships, without which it becomes a strategic vulnerability. The complexity of forming an integrated carrier strike group, capable of defending against multifaceted threats, is immense. The PLAN's development of the KJ-600, an early warning aircraft, is a strategic addition, potentially enhancing the combat effectiveness and defensive coverage of its carrier groups.

Assessing Carrier Vulnerabilities

Naval Strategy and the Question of Carrier Vulnerability

Chinese analysts have debated the vulnerability of aircraft carriers, questioning their necessity in the Indian Ocean given China's substantial arsenal of sophisticated anti-ship missiles on both naval and land-based platforms. The debate extends to whether the PLAN’s missile capabilities pose a greater offensive threat compared to the defensive role of a carrier needing constant protection in the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean.

Strategic Value and Limitations of Carriers

The logistical challenges and vastness of the Indian Ocean raise doubts about the practicality of deploying carriers far from conflict zones, considering the time needed for a carrier to respond. Alternative vessels such as frigates and destroyers on mission-based deployments offer broader protection for Chinese interests and provide operational lessons in blue-water logistics and navigation. Yet, without sufficient air cover, PLAN’s ability to engage effectively in significant combat operations is compromised, confining its capabilities to non-combat operations like evacuations unless shore-based air coverage is strategically addressed.

Overseas Bases and Their Inherent Vulnerabilities

While overseas bases contribute to deterrence, advancements in targeting technology have heightened their vulnerability during conflicts, rendering them susceptible to precise attacks. The operational utility of these bases is contingent on the political dynamics with host governments, as access during hostilities often requires explicit host-nation approval, further complicating their strategic reliability.

Strategic Considerations and Future Ambitions

Advancements in technology have provided alternative options for enhancing maritime capabilities, such as long-range aircraft, aerial refueling, and sea-based support, which may reduce the strategic necessity of overseas bases. However, these bases still carry risks, potentially escalating tensions and prompting hegemonic perceptions, a situation Beijing should navigate with caution to align with its stated aim of fostering global peace.

China's engagement with the Indian Ocean has grown significantly, with indications of a desire for a fleet or force capable of asserting its maritime interests. Evidence from port development initiatives and naval acquisitions suggests a move toward a distinct Indian Ocean presence. While full sea control remains unlikely, China is poised to present a credible counter to threats against its sea lines of communication. Yet, the PLAN’s shortfall in air protection and the geopolitical intricacies of base negotiations, coupled with the strengthening security relationship between India and the United States, present the primary challenges to China’s aspirations in the region.

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As the global landscape continues to evolve, a pattern has emerged, one where the expansionist policies of powers such as Russia and China are reminiscent of a playbook used throughout history—military strength as a means to assert dominance. However, this approach often neglects the fundamental principle that sustainable peace is not maintained through shows of force but through the cultivation of shared prosperity.

The analyses presented within these pages suggest a pivotal redirection: moving away from a competitive stance predicated on scarcity, towards fostering an economy of abundance. The goal is to create not just pockets of wealth, but a global society enriched with opportunity, security, and sustainability for all.

In our hands lies the ability to redefine the narrative

thanks for reading!

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Light editing by Xawat

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